Hou orioles trade

Could we pleae get a blast out to the league? Would hate for this to go under the radar and get just 7 votes with a deadline of 7PM tomorrow. Veto votes in the past had a lot of discussion surrounding them. Seems odd to just let this pass by, so sticking my neck out on the chopping block here to get the ball rolling for some communication between everyone.


My two cents: do i believe that this trade will turn in my favor? sure, its why i made it. however, i have observed in the past and this adds another example of a group think surrounding valuations of two types of players: high end prospects and quality relievers. The majority of dynasty owners in my two leagues and beyond (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/managing-prospect-expectations/) overvalue and overestimate the impact and likelihood and value of even the best prospects while simultaneously undervaluing good relievers. The popular notion is that good RPs are a dime a dozen and easy to get with a higher chance of losing jobs/effectiveness than hitters/SPs. I believe that there is some merit in those thoughts, but it is way overcompensated for when thinking about trade values. I have consistently used this 'RP undervaluing' concept to trade for and have a studly RP core in both my leagues, a part of my winning strategy. It has worked very well. I also use the market 'overvaluing prospects' to my advantage consistently to stay near the top of the pile. 


On Barlow – could he flop? Sure. Could he become a bonafide closer? Absolutely. 1.55ERA/.83 WHIP over half a season of RP innings in MLB is simply amazing. His AAA numbers were just as good before he got the call (2.57/0.76whip). He took a big step forward compared to his 2019 status. He’s got a stud fastball that works well up in the zone, plus velo coupled with plus spin rate = plus plus fastball. Go watch some tape. His slider is merely ‘plus’, not elite on its own, but has a tunneling effect and works well off of the velo and complements the FB.


On Hilliard / Vargas – Hilliard stands to benefit from the DH in the NL and has already proven he has crazy power, with exit velos off the charts.  Last year his rate/pace was 28HR/162gms and I would bet the over on that for his 2022 pace. He’ll be a strong power option with roughly 2/3rds PT without making any improvements/progress, but has a chance to take a step forward (eye / hit ) and become a fantasy starter. Worst case, he's a power bench option. Best case, he's an all-star type hitter. Vargas is a back end T100 type with a lot of risk and a long lead to getting to MLB. Enough said.


On Torkelson: there is a 10% chance he will bust, 45% chance he will be decent but not great, 25% chance at great/all star and 20% chance at elite. This is a bat first player that has to hit to even be in the bigs. The margin for error is thin for this type of player. The historical reference points used to estimate resulting values for his comparables say that there’s a 55% chance (of bust or just decent) I lose this trade. Of course, the upside makes up for this for my team long term....  we tend collectively to remember the successes and forget the failures from these types of bat specs....


On impact to my team: I already sent three closers away in trade (W. Smith, Jansen, Melancon) this pre-season with Barlow in mind and locked in to fill in the gap there, and this would be my 4th expected closer to go in trade. Losing him hurts my club this year more than Torkelson will provide in value on the hit side. I’ve got Bregman and Yuli at 3B/1B, and really no expectations of Tork being better than they are this year. I’ve always maintained top notch pitching and just pretty good hitting and now I have just 1 lock closer (Pressly) and one maybe (Gallegos). I'll be looking to grab RPs in trade sooner or later.  Long-term, I still want Tork in this trade and hope for the upside, of course, but he is far from a proven commodity and it is strange that a handful of you all are treating him like he is already a legit stud. He hasn't hit MLB pitching yet, which is a huge step and far more difficult than MILB (better velo, command, sequencing and sharper breaking pitches). He’ll need to prove that step before earning the value that some of you think he should already have.  Does the trade actually help me as one of the top contenders in 2022? No. Long term? Maybe, TBD.


FWIW, my initial offer was Elias Diaz C COL, Hilliard and Vargas and Dale specifically wanted Barlow instead of E. Diaz. This should be his right, to make calls for his team. I believe that the final trade result is within reasonable valuations / risk / reward balance and not at all vetoable. 

I recall thinking that CWS – Ben made some odd choices in his first couple years, weird targets and trades, but he ended up bringing his club to contention. There are multiple ways to go about building a competitive team and YOUR way is not the only way. If we all thought the same, what’s the point of even playing this game?

last piece you'll hear from me here

1. Would like to point out to be sure that people see that YES vote = VETO and a NO vote = PASS TRADE / don't veto. (Prior veto votes were the opposite where YES meant let the trade pass and NO meant veto)

2. Can we all please learn to respect each other? Uncalled for nastiness in chat. There is absolutely no need to disrespect others for a simulation game with no real world implications.

Unless the balance is so off that it's clearly collusive we shouldn't be vetoing trades. I've said that before on almost every protest, I'll say it again. Protesting deals is insane and ridiculous. This deal doesn't even come close to that line.